Always look forward to your articles and this one didn't disappoint
I'm going to play devils advocate here, and suggest that ETF may not signify the end of the US dollar, but perhaps it's last attempt to bring BTC under its control.
As your article suggests, Gold has long been a thorn in the shoe of empire - a mirror reflecting the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies, something that had to be dealt with at all costs.
In the 2000's the first gold ETF was introduced, which indeed fueled a rise in the gold price, but also has been used since as a tool surpress gold value against the dollar.
How is this done? - here is gpt's response:
Critics argue that the gold price is suppressed through the creation of paper gold in the form of GLD ETFs.
Some claim that the issuance of GLD shares, not backed by equivalent physical gold, dilutes the market and artificially depresses gold prices.
Allegations suggest that large-scale trading in GLD options and futures can lead to downward pressure on gold prices.
Critics point to the lack of transparency in GLD's gold holdings, raising concerns about the true correlation between the ETF and the actual gold market.
The perception of synthetic gold creation through ETFs is contended by some as a factor contributing to the suppression of gold prices.
Now, I understand we are talking about a 'Spot' BTC ETF, meaning that 1 btc will have to be 'custodied' against 1 btc derivative. Audits are potentially easier due to BTC's public blockchain, but this will mean tracking the volume of 'paper' BTC issued against 'real' BTC. My question is, who will be monitoring this? and who watches the watchmen? - will it be left to the wolves of wall street and their friendly regulators?
By its Fiat nature, the dollar will defeat any derivative it's pitted against, and whilst we can chant the mantra of ' not your keys not your coins' , Most peope to refer to the The GLD derivative price when valuing gold rather than the price it would cost to actual take delivery of an ounce...
Satoshi recognised the dangers of fiat currencies, central banking, counterparty risk. I posit he would regard ( using star wars as a reference) the ETF is a case of the Empire striking back / revenge of the sith - rather than a new hope!
Again I'm simply playing devils advocate, and here to learn.
Very interested in hearing your counter-arguments :)
Never underestimate Bitcoin's game theory. Satoshi definitely understood the Art of War. You definitely need to be when playing chess against these monopolistic tyrants!
Great detail and great callouts from the ruling. The fear the US government has of a "free for all" out of their reach can also be read as the desire of US politicians to attempt to exert control over the world using the dollar as their muscle. This is capitalism smeared with totalitarian and is the American version of the Spanish and British invasions. Rather than invading with people, the US invades with it's FIAT. The collapse of that system starts today...
Everything our system touches will soon be toxic. Our entire system is too rigged for those with any value or novel thought to bother with it. The people pushing bit coin and game theory right now are the elite. The same elite who are telling us this rosy note "This is all going to end with no one (i.e. regular people) owning anything".
The elite are so drunk on their own Kool Aid they have lost their minds. They are so entitled they do not understand the basic premise of why we actually show up to or compete for work.
They have forgotten we don't live to serve them. That we also need an incentive to show up and a value to stay. Why is anyone going to compete if they don't get anything for the work they must do after they win.
Grades mean very little. They are not even requiring degrees anymore for most of the high tech, high paying jobs. Why? Because everything is so rigged for the rich that people are realizing the amount of work needed to get through it will cost them more than they will get for their investment. Plus they have taken away all the real incentives to compete. There is no retirement (freedom from the system or work). Your only reward for being a good lil worker is increasing subjugation, burnout and a complete lack of security.
Our systems are dinosaurs staring down a quickly coming extinction they can not avoid. They will do an immense amount of thrashing, fighting, screaming, and destroying on their way out the door.
War is going to increase, poverty will increase, assets will decrease.
The collapse is expected by 2040.
Right now your focus should be about getting ahead of the system, not into it. This is the perfect time to figure out what you really want to do or be. Go into everything you love and figure out how to do all of it. The future is going to be what you can create of it. It is a time of opportunity for the big picture thinkers and seers. It will be but a small blip in your journey if you are one who already knows themselves.
If you start right now seeking what Joseph Campbell described as one's "Bliss", you will do fine. You will sail through what is coming. Because Bliss is the counter to self destruction. It is the light in the dark that helps you find your version of the good life, of a fulfilling potential and career you were meant to make.
The fact that everyone on here is a creative is wonderful. It is only the creatives can create peace in chaos. That can make an opportunity when everything that once was is no more. Because our emotions are there to lead us to it. It simply feeling alive that leads you to where you always need to go to gets you through what is coming.
Here's a perspective from a friend of mine who I count on to have a contrarian view. . .
Crypto is decentralized thievery. Pure and simple. Eventually the price will be paid---most likely when the supply of electricity is damaged when a major war erupts. Crypto is nothing more than the power of belief. Comparing it to the end of the gold standard is biased. There is not enough gold in the world to support the size of the U.S. currency currently. The U.S. would only be trying to buy gold that does not exist. There is nothing that gives crypto value except belief---it is a religion, with no more value than the people who believe in it.
The Bitcoin paper is titled: “Bitcoin: a peer to peer electronic cash system”
For quite some time now it has been clear that bitcoin is much more like digital gold. (I remember reading the book Digital Gold by Nataniel Popper in 2016).
In giving the paper that title, did Satoshi see something that we have yet to see realized, and are missing? It would seem like Friedman‘s paper on commodity reserve currency delineates how gold (or Bitcoin) cannot provide the price stability of fiat (a big benefit for cash payments, although that comes with fragility). Did Satoshi just misunderstand why bitcoin would not work well for cash payments, while at the same time, having the genius to design what has become digital gold?
I fear by the time regular people wake up to the vital hard money of bitcoin it will be too late and they’ll end up with a pitiful amount . I try and orange pill then but they’re so very scared and self custody is like black magic
Always look forward to your articles and this one didn't disappoint
I'm going to play devils advocate here, and suggest that ETF may not signify the end of the US dollar, but perhaps it's last attempt to bring BTC under its control.
As your article suggests, Gold has long been a thorn in the shoe of empire - a mirror reflecting the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies, something that had to be dealt with at all costs.
In the 2000's the first gold ETF was introduced, which indeed fueled a rise in the gold price, but also has been used since as a tool surpress gold value against the dollar.
How is this done? - here is gpt's response:
Critics argue that the gold price is suppressed through the creation of paper gold in the form of GLD ETFs.
Some claim that the issuance of GLD shares, not backed by equivalent physical gold, dilutes the market and artificially depresses gold prices.
Allegations suggest that large-scale trading in GLD options and futures can lead to downward pressure on gold prices.
Critics point to the lack of transparency in GLD's gold holdings, raising concerns about the true correlation between the ETF and the actual gold market.
The perception of synthetic gold creation through ETFs is contended by some as a factor contributing to the suppression of gold prices.
Now, I understand we are talking about a 'Spot' BTC ETF, meaning that 1 btc will have to be 'custodied' against 1 btc derivative. Audits are potentially easier due to BTC's public blockchain, but this will mean tracking the volume of 'paper' BTC issued against 'real' BTC. My question is, who will be monitoring this? and who watches the watchmen? - will it be left to the wolves of wall street and their friendly regulators?
By its Fiat nature, the dollar will defeat any derivative it's pitted against, and whilst we can chant the mantra of ' not your keys not your coins' , Most peope to refer to the The GLD derivative price when valuing gold rather than the price it would cost to actual take delivery of an ounce...
Satoshi recognised the dangers of fiat currencies, central banking, counterparty risk. I posit he would regard ( using star wars as a reference) the ETF is a case of the Empire striking back / revenge of the sith - rather than a new hope!
Again I'm simply playing devils advocate, and here to learn.
Very interested in hearing your counter-arguments :)
Never underestimate Bitcoin's game theory. Satoshi definitely understood the Art of War. You definitely need to be when playing chess against these monopolistic tyrants!
Another beautifully articulate article 👏👏👏
Balaji, what is the best way to issue digital securities on Bitcoin?
Great detail and great callouts from the ruling. The fear the US government has of a "free for all" out of their reach can also be read as the desire of US politicians to attempt to exert control over the world using the dollar as their muscle. This is capitalism smeared with totalitarian and is the American version of the Spanish and British invasions. Rather than invading with people, the US invades with it's FIAT. The collapse of that system starts today...
We accept bitcoin and have for 3 years. It’s the only hard monetary asset.
https://gpstrackershop.com/
Everything our system touches will soon be toxic. Our entire system is too rigged for those with any value or novel thought to bother with it. The people pushing bit coin and game theory right now are the elite. The same elite who are telling us this rosy note "This is all going to end with no one (i.e. regular people) owning anything".
The elite are so drunk on their own Kool Aid they have lost their minds. They are so entitled they do not understand the basic premise of why we actually show up to or compete for work.
They have forgotten we don't live to serve them. That we also need an incentive to show up and a value to stay. Why is anyone going to compete if they don't get anything for the work they must do after they win.
Grades mean very little. They are not even requiring degrees anymore for most of the high tech, high paying jobs. Why? Because everything is so rigged for the rich that people are realizing the amount of work needed to get through it will cost them more than they will get for their investment. Plus they have taken away all the real incentives to compete. There is no retirement (freedom from the system or work). Your only reward for being a good lil worker is increasing subjugation, burnout and a complete lack of security.
Our systems are dinosaurs staring down a quickly coming extinction they can not avoid. They will do an immense amount of thrashing, fighting, screaming, and destroying on their way out the door.
War is going to increase, poverty will increase, assets will decrease.
The collapse is expected by 2040.
Right now your focus should be about getting ahead of the system, not into it. This is the perfect time to figure out what you really want to do or be. Go into everything you love and figure out how to do all of it. The future is going to be what you can create of it. It is a time of opportunity for the big picture thinkers and seers. It will be but a small blip in your journey if you are one who already knows themselves.
If you start right now seeking what Joseph Campbell described as one's "Bliss", you will do fine. You will sail through what is coming. Because Bliss is the counter to self destruction. It is the light in the dark that helps you find your version of the good life, of a fulfilling potential and career you were meant to make.
The fact that everyone on here is a creative is wonderful. It is only the creatives can create peace in chaos. That can make an opportunity when everything that once was is no more. Because our emotions are there to lead us to it. It simply feeling alive that leads you to where you always need to go to gets you through what is coming.
This is end of the beginning. Joyous.
Here's a perspective from a friend of mine who I count on to have a contrarian view. . .
Crypto is decentralized thievery. Pure and simple. Eventually the price will be paid---most likely when the supply of electricity is damaged when a major war erupts. Crypto is nothing more than the power of belief. Comparing it to the end of the gold standard is biased. There is not enough gold in the world to support the size of the U.S. currency currently. The U.S. would only be trying to buy gold that does not exist. There is nothing that gives crypto value except belief---it is a religion, with no more value than the people who believe in it.
بسیارهم عالی قشنگ بیان کردید
Is there a longer-term concern about the centralization of BTC? Many of the ETF issuers have large stakes in major mining operations for example.
Zooko has a good thread on this recently: https://x.com/zooko/status/1744079318429364404?s=20
Will the Bitcoin ETF expose Bitcoin to more leverage creating more volatility?
Something I’m not clear on...
The Bitcoin paper is titled: “Bitcoin: a peer to peer electronic cash system”
For quite some time now it has been clear that bitcoin is much more like digital gold. (I remember reading the book Digital Gold by Nataniel Popper in 2016).
In giving the paper that title, did Satoshi see something that we have yet to see realized, and are missing? It would seem like Friedman‘s paper on commodity reserve currency delineates how gold (or Bitcoin) cannot provide the price stability of fiat (a big benefit for cash payments, although that comes with fragility). Did Satoshi just misunderstand why bitcoin would not work well for cash payments, while at the same time, having the genius to design what has become digital gold?
I fear by the time regular people wake up to the vital hard money of bitcoin it will be too late and they’ll end up with a pitiful amount . I try and orange pill then but they’re so very scared and self custody is like black magic
Great read! And here's how the decentralists prevail: https://decentmillionaire.substack.com/p/how-the-decentralists-reconceptualized